It's like Oslo again and the results could be the same.

Direct talks between the Palestinians and Israelis are set to start on Sept 2nd.Many of the reasons for entering these talks by both sides are much the same reasons for which both the Fatah led PLO and Israel embarked on the Oslo peace process in the early nineties.That process ended in failure and the current process is also likely to end in failure where the consequences of failure could be equally as disastarous.Political decision making by the Palestinian Authority, Fatah and the PLO in regard to the peace process cannot be understood without understanding the long term internal conflict between Fatah and Hamas and the struggle between secularism and Islamism within the Palestinian territories.
In the early nineties after the outbreak of the first Intifada Islamism and Hamas were on the rise in the Palestinian territories as Hamas sought to put a religious stamp on the conflict with Israel and to blame the failure of the Palestinians on supporting the more secular Fatah and on the abandonment of Islam. According to Hamas only a return to Islam could ensure victory against the Israeli's.In 1992 Hamas was in a position to defeat Fatah electorally after gaining significant support in Palestinian society within professsional associations and the universitites such as the Islamic university of Gaza. Hamas came into significance after two decades of consistent grassroots charitable work and financial support from the Israeli's in building mosques which multiplied in number. At a time when Palestinian Nationalism was on the rise Israel sought in the early seventies and eighties to crush rising secular nationalism in the West Bank and Gaza while supporting the Islamist movement to combat the nationalists. The Israeli's and the Islamists shared the same goal of wanting to eliminate the Nationalists.While Fatah members were been arrested and their activites broken up Islamists were given a free hand to organise and conduct their activities. The charitable organisation Al Mujama led by Sheikh Yasin were given a free hand to operate within the Palestinian territories and were allowed to register with the Israeli authorities and attained a licence to operate as an official charity organisation.However,as the Intifada progressed and Israeli's were been attacked by the Islamist Hamas it was no longer viable for Israel to co-opt the Islamists and they were banned as an organisation.Arafat recognised Israel and embarked on peace talks with Israel which led to the 1993 Oslo accords.This was in part in a response to Hamas's rising popularity and a means to isloate the movement.The peace process then was a process that was conducted by a Palestinian elite heavily influenced by the U.S and did not represent the wishes of all Palestinian society much the same as the process today. Hamas refused to be part of the process in Oslo which it believed was not in the interests of the Palestinian people much the same as Hamas' stance in not supporting the current peace process. Any success in the peace process will lead to increased support for Fatah and isolate Hamas and if the peace process falters Hamas will gain support as it did after the failure of the Oslo process. Ironically Israel and U.S. policy of supporting Fatah and isolating Hamas has ultimately led to incresed support for Hamas when the peace process broke down and has made reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah increasingly more difficult.U.S. and Israeli interference in Palestinian politics has been a serious impediment to Palestinian unity. Hamas is confident the peace process will fail and is waiting on the sidelines to reap the rewards of failure to reach an agreement.Many scholars and academics who study Hamas and Islamism in the Palestinian territories such as Beverley Milton Edwards(see her lastest book HAMAS)believe that Hamas should be engaged as "There is no solution that does'nt include Hamas" As the process falters Hamas could initiate demonstrations and make announcements that assist in its efforts to increasingly Islamise the Palestinian conflict.Mahmoud Abbas is thus threading carefully as he knows the consequences of failure.After the Oslo process and recognising Israel the Palestinians felt they did not see any results of the process that was supposed to lead to a Palestinian state and a better life for the Palestinians.Indeed,by the year2000 Palestinians felt their lives were more miserable and settlement construction continued unabated.When people are miserable and they see no hope, religion can be a powerful pulling factor and in a conservative society such as in the Palestinian territories that pulling factor is Hamas.There has been much talk of a third Intifada. Hamas will be eager to initiate an uprising at the right time which increases its support in response to a failing peace process and a frustrated Palestinian population.