Ma fi Hal

I have officially postponed my phd after one year. It was a great year,I learned so much and made many new friends. I have given my blog a new title as I hope to write some articles now and again as a way of staying in touch with the issues of which I am interested in, including, Lebanese and Palestinian politics, the Israeli/Palestinian peace process/conflict, Hamas and Hizbullah and the Israeli/axis of resistance conflict. After much deliberation I have decided to call my blog Ma fi Hal which is arabic for "There is no solution" regarding a peaceful solution to the Israeli/Palestinian peace process, the Israeli/Hizbullah conflict, internal Palestinian politics or the intricacy of solving the dilemma's of internal Lebanese politics. All these issues are intertwined in conjunction with the problem of Iran and other vital actors in the region such as Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. If there is ever a solution to these issues I will gladly stop writing about them.I hope it comes in my lifetime but am not optimistic.I listened to a great presentation earlier by the very respected Palestinian Khalil Shikaki on the peace process and the road ahead for the Palestinians and he portrayed a sombre picture.You can listen to it here-The Peace Process,What Palestinians will do and why ? It encapsulates the complexity of Palestinian politics and decision making regarding the peace process. It is extremely difficult to see a solution and the road ahead looks increasingly dim.The situation in Lebanon has become increasingly tense in regard to the indictment of Hizbullah members in the International Tribunal for Lebanon. Although many Lebanese have realised that it may be better to sacrifice justice for stability in Lebanon by thwarting the realization of the tribunal a delicate balance is needed so as to appease both the side of justice and those feeling threatened by what Hizbullah claims is a politicalization of the tribunal as a means to defeat Hizbullah.The next few months will be very interesting in Lebanon. Many Lebanese politicians and analysts have been mentioning since early this year that the indictments are likely very soon but at this stage I believe the indictments will not come out until after the new year, probably closer to March or April, a good reason for which Johnathan Spyer gives here- Hizbullah's throne of bayonets. Michael Young from the Daily Star offers good analysis on the Lebanese Daily Star at www.dailystar.com.lb in the opinion column and he has scoffed at the thoughts of any indictments before the end of this year as early as last July-see his article here-Are we fools to expect indictments soon? Irish soldiers will return to Lebanon next year-Irish troops returning to Lebanon-in around the time when the indictments will most likely be issued and tense times in Lebanon! Tension in Lebanon though is part of daily life,whether it is the constant threat of assassinations of political leaders, invasions from Israel or bombings in neighborhoods. Sometimes these periods of tension pass as in the summer of 2008 when there was a constant fear of an Israeli invasion and other times conflict erupts when nobody expects it such as in the 2006 summer war when Israel invaded Lebanon again.Many in Lebanon are currently fearing a civil war as Lebanese hold no reason to have faith in the strength of the state of Lebanon. Despite these uncertainties and fears events are logical and consistent in Lebanon when analysed against the prevailing situation, messages and interpretations signaled by actors in Lebanon and the region. Hizbullah has been clear in denouncing the tribunal. The Lebanese have the most to lose. Hizbullah possesses the means, the confessional support in vital areas of importance and has the capability to take over the state in a short period of time. This is no secret, Hizbullah has made clear it's intention several times(and again this week promising to "cut off the hand" of anyone trying to arrest a Hizbullah member) because as in May 2008 it does not wish it's hand to be forced as it wants to maintain unity in what it considers as an International,U.S. Israeli plot to discredit it. Hizbullah sees it as yet another attack against the organisation in a long line of attacks since 2006 in an effort to curtail it's military and political influence within Lebanon. The Lebanese eventually sort out their internal political problems and stalemates but now due to the fact that the Hariri tribunal is an International issue which has International support, pressure and momentum, Hizbullah is been pushed into a corner with no release in sight. As the indictments approach the options of the various actors are numerous, including those of Hizbullah, Syria, Iran and Israel. These include the instigation of a demonstration, sit-in, walk out of government, the initiation of a sub-servient group of which there are many to any of the main players to carry out an assassination or an attack prior to or during the initial phase of the indictments. An attack against the International Tribunal in Lebanon by many of the actors is a possibility in sowing further confusion and instability in Lebanon all indicating that unless the tribunal goes away in Lebanon there will be no stability.